Reality check on promotions


Promotions are hard for the employee and the employer. Unless its the first couple of levels in the organizational ladder, there is always a lot of subjectivity that goes into the process from both sides. Even when a company says it is all data driven – it is often the case that subjective decisions ( my favorite one – a score for communication skills) that contribute to the final “score” .

I have had my fair share of happiness and frustration when it comes to promotions – both as an employee and as a manager. So I thought I will offer a few thoughts on this topic for what its worth. I am skipping over some obvious stuff like networking, having mentors and coaches and sponsors, gaining the right skills, being a good communicator and so on.

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Careful what you wish for !

While the title looks cooler, the office larger, and the pay check looks bigger – promotions come with things you don’t always realize prior to the big event. To maintain the level of high performance you are used to – You may need to travel more, you may not get as much time with family or to exercise , you may be risking your job itself a whole lot more with the kind of decisions you make , you may get a new boss who is not as good to you as the last one, and at some senior levels – you may not have any air cover any more !. Before you set down the road to promotion – you need to understand what it means to your life uniquely . And since circumstances changes, you need to evaluate along the way if you still want it.

When Performance and Potential meets Feasibility

If you are awesome at your current job – there is a high chance that you will get good raises and bonuses. If you don’t and you leave – you probably can get a job elsewhere at the same level that pays you better. That does not get you promoted most of the time. Similarly if your leaders feel you have the potential to be good at your next job – they will put you on the slate to be promoted. But then you need to perform at a level consistent with the job you are going to be promoted to. If you don’t – you will stay in your current level. Even if performance and potential are great – you may miss out on promotions because the business makes an evaluation that there is no capacity to promote you. If you miss out on a promotion – you need to know which of these scenarios played out, and then make a decision to fight it, improve on it, give up or leave . Don’t just do the same things all over again and expect a different result .

Don’t be petty – be Great !

While the prevailing wisdom is “results should speak for you” – that is not how it works in real life for the most part. So you need to market your success so that people know what you did . This needs some nuance too which is where this usually goes wrong terribly. If you steal credit – you will get exposed at some point and take a fall for it. So do yourself a favor – and don’t EVER do it ! Also – as you grow as a leader, you need to demonstrate that you are grooming a top performing team, and not just growing yourself. I need more than fingers and toes to count how many people have not made it through promotion processes just for being petty .  It’s the kind of reputation that is really hard to shake off.

Grow some thick skin ….really thick skin 

No one likes to be criticized – even when it is “constructive”. In the ideal world – leaders praise in public and criticize in private. As your responsibilities grow – the risk of taking heat in larger forums also generally increases. If you melt down frequently when your leaders turn on the pressure, take some time to figure out how to grow your resilience. Remember that they are evaluating you against the job you want – not the one you have now. That means they also expect you to push back when you have conviction in your actions. You need to get comfortable with testing boundaries – and you need to be resilient if you want to be good at it.

Trust and transparency are never out of fashion

I remember the coaching a senior partner gave me the evening I was promoted to senior manager – “Vijay, it is quite simple to progress in this firm. You tell people what you will do, and then you go do it. You ask for specific help and act on it. You let everyone who needs to know if there is a meaningful deviation from what you set out to do and what is your new plan. You keep doing it to higher degrees every year and you will progress rapidly. That is all there is to it”.

That advice has stayed true to this day and I gratefully pass it on to others.

From “Climbing a ladder” to “Surfing waves”

The first few promotions are absolutely like climbing a ladder – each rung looks to be the same distance above the last one. You can plan the process fairly well. This analogy stops being relevant by the time you make first line manager. From that point it is more like surfing waves. A surfer cannot will a wave to show up. He can only be as prepared as he can when a wave shows up. Waves many not show up for a while – but you could also have back to back big waves that you can ride high. If you don’t see waves at all for a while – you may want to find another beach to try your luck, and it is totally ok to be happy paddling around in the sun and enjoy the peaceful scenery for a while. Its your life after all 🙂

Have a plan for dealing with rejection

Promotions obviously get progressively harder to get given there is lesser room as you move up a pyramid. The criteria gets not only harder – it gets fuzzier as well. You have a decision to make when you are passed over for promotion.  The best time to decide what to do with rejection is before you go through the process when your judgement in less clouded with emotional distress. You need to make peace with the fact that the world is not fair. Someone else may have powerful connections, may have more skills , or just have the knack of being in the right place at the right time.

If performance was the reason, and you agree with it – obviously the solution is to get the right skills, try harder etc. If potential was the reason – its time to have an honest conversation with your leader and decide if there is something you can do about it. If it was because the business could not afford to promote you – understand what else can happen instead . Can you get a raise and a promise to get promoted when some agreed up on event happens? Is this a make or break milestone for you that you would rather leave than try again ? And if it is – does your leadership know it so that they can factor it into their process ? Should you check the open market to see what else is available so that you don’t need to settle for less in the last minute if things don’t work for you in the promotion process ?

The only thing harder than getting a promotion 

is to sustain the performance at the new role ! Its one thing that you and your leaders both thought you are awesome. It’s quite another to make it work every day . Again, I think the best time to plan for that is before you get promoted . Learn as much as you can about what success looks like at the new level and what is the big difference from success in current job. Then fix those gaps as much as you can. That will improve your chances of success in getting promoted, will give you the confidence to make a strong start and worst case – it will help you interview better and find a new gig if you choose to leave.

 Good luck !

We can’t help it – we will alway mess up our future in our quest for convenience !


We – the collective humanity – have always loved the concept of efficiency. “Better, Faster and Cheaper” have always appealed to us. But over the long term, efficiency has not always been in our best interests, perhaps because we never knew when to stop.   

It follows a fairly consistent pattern that goes like this

  1. Identify a big problem to solve 
  2. Several planned and unplanned events happen and then a tipping point is passed, and we swiftly move into the new world with little to no worries about the past
  3. We don’t stop there – a little bit of a good thing makes us believe that more of it must be significantly better . Rich people subsidize the first few generations of the solution.
  4. We live with un-intended consequences of our actions and debate  how to solve the problems we created.
  5. Irony – what used to be the stuff everyone could afford to do in the past is now only possible for a few rich people.

History is a darn good teacher, if only we listen

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Horses – and assorted carriages – were our primary mode of transportation for hundreds of years. Humans loved their horses – we know that from stories and movies and all that. But horses were high maintenance – they need to be fed and watered, they had vet bills, they produced a lot of organic waste that littered streets and so on. But we just worked around all the problems .

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Along came automobiles – and they co-existed somewhat peacefully with horses and buggies. At some point – some smart people figured out a better way to pave roads, a good traffic management system, a way to mass produce petrol etc. And voila – we had more automobiles than horses. We swiftly moved from a scenario of a few rich people owning cars to only a few rich people being able to afford horses.

We did not stop there – we increased the number of cars we bought to a ridiculous extent and then tried to solve the ensuing traffic jam , increased carbon footprint etc by encouraging people to car pool and use HOV lanes . Our centuries old love for horses did not stand in the way – we left them behind and were happy to live with nostalgia via books and movies.

But have we learned anything really ? 

When I used to visit my dad in his office in 1980s and 90s – the choice of a beverage was water or coffee/tea. If it was lunch time – the canteen will have one freshly made hot meal .

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If I needed a soda, or a snack – I would have to take money from my dad and walk across the street to a bakery and get it.  My family ate out once a month – and we knew some rich neighbors who would eat out twice a week.

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Let’s fast forward to today . When my teenage daughter visits my office now – she can choose from twenty different things on the vending machine that accepts apple pay. If none of those looks good – she can order something on UberEats and have it delivered.  Way more efficient for sure than when I was her age.

The picture is less pretty if we zoom out though. Obesity and the diseases it contributes to are on the rise – especially amongst children. High calorie , sugary stuff is availably aplenty at very low prices everywhere. So now I worry about the evil effects of convenience while sipping on diet soda from the vending machine. Meanwhile I hear from my mom that the rich people have switched to freshly home cooked food as their primary sustenance these days 🙂

So, where are we headed ?

The idea of convenience in the past had a simple premise – minimize the mechanical effort requited to get something done. We only want to think – we don’t really want to do !

To that end, we don’t even mind trading off our privacy for some added convenience. Now that we have a good idea how to minimize the doing part –  we are probably not going to stop till we get close to doing absolutely nothing at all.

That leaves us with a big opportunity to now bring efficiency to minimizing our need to think and make decisions. So the future of efficiency is to find ways to delegate decision making so that we don’t tax our brains an awful lot.

This is not new – for example we have always heard stuff like “you have to delegate to succeed” in the workplace. But delegating to another human being is not very efficient in the grand scheme of things. Our decision making process is swayed by a lot of things – prejudices, how distracted or tired we are, the variety of our life experiences and so on. Just because we delegated to Jane and she did an amazing job, does not mean that we can repeat it fool proof with Joe or Jason, even if you spend time coaching them and giving them incentives etc.

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Not to worry – that is where intelligent computer systems can help us. They may inherit the same prejudices etc that we humans have to begin with. But we can fix them and they will consistently be good at whatever we taught them. They may even get better at it over time and be as good or better than us.

When you are nearly out of coffee – your home assistant can order coffee for you looking at your past consumption choices. You can put some boundaries like how much $ to spend at most, or how often you want to be surprised with something new. Netflix already offers me better suggestions on what to watch than my own searches . So this is all pure awesomeness.

But we can’t stop here, can we now ? If the smart system can do so well with coffee – it can also do a good job with most of my grocery purchases – say 80% of all my needs. So I only need to drive to Walmart for a few things. Over time this will be true for most people in my neighborhood. At this point – Walmart will probably realize that there is no reason to keep a big super center in the neighborhood and its cheaper to give me some incentive to also do the other 20% of my shopping online.

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There goes a lot of jobs in that store! Some – maybe all – of those jobs will reappear in their warehouse and IT/Data science departments. If my computer is doing my shopping – the grocery store does not need to send me coupons anymore. It should market electronically to my smart system. There goes some more jobs in marketing and ad agencies – also to be replaced with more jobs for full stack developers, security experts and even more data scientists !

So here is the question – Can those cashiers and assorted store employees be retrained into developers and data scientists and warehouse experts ? If yes – awesome. If no – well then we might have a big problem on our hands.

There may also be some tangential disruption. If most of our grocery purchasing is now automated – with some “surprise me” options – the data is suddenly of great interest to other industries like insurance companies . Will we start seeing mergers of health care payers and providers with grocery retailers and wholesalers?

Is there anything we can do to prepare ?

It is honestly beyond my comprehension to predict what all will happen as a result of all these things I explained above. But I am fairly convinced that we are wired in a way that we won’t stop till we disrupt our current ways of living and the speed of change will only increase with time – not decrease. We have proven that over and over .

The store employees maybe able to retrain – perhaps with the help of their employers and government – to acquire new skills. But how many times can they do so before it gets overwhelming ? Will it get harder as they grow older ?

Knowing some version of this story will play out in future – how do we redesign what we teach kids in schools and colleges ? Are we going to ask our elected representatives for concrete plans for all these when they are campaigning ?

Clearly I don’t know the exact answers, but I can venture some guesses

The current wisdom of “we need more STEM grads” may not be the magic bullet in the not too distant future. Engineering type disciplines will probably go past the stage where it does not need as many people to make things work.

One mainstream solution I expect is that most of the knowledge will be codified in some kind of expert systems. The skill needed by human users will not be about memorizing things – but in asking questions to these systems on the fly and  then interpret answers for other humans. And when the system reaches a stage where it does not need a human user to help make it work – the human will just move on to a higher order area and repeat this process.

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For example – a Cancer doctor in future will probably not need to spend a lot of time learning to diagnose or treat cancer. Machines will probably do most of that and probably can debate with other machines to get to great diagnosis and treatment plans. The doctor’s job will probably be to provide a humane face to this process – helping the patient with emotionally dealing with all this, answering questions and helping make decisions.

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A history teacher might not need to remember or teach the dates of important wars and other events , or names of all the characters. Her job might be more of connecting “what can we learn from this so that we can change what we do in future?” for the students. Once the teacher decides that part – probably computers can craft the story telling in a way that is personalized for each student . Instead of just suggesting a movie for me – Netflix might be able to put together a full movie just for me when they understand me a lot more than they do today.

The current needs for STEM talent will probably continue for a long time. But we may also start needing more philosophy and history majors, and more ethics experts to help plan and execute for the rapidly evolving world around us. There is a part of me that thinks we will need a lot more psychology majors and therapists to help us all deal with the stress this will potentially create. I am not too sure on this last part – because I also think we will adapt quickly like how we moved past the horses that we dearly loved not that long ago.

Keeps life interesting, eh ?

Do we need a better North Star for AI than the Turing Test ?


Almost 7 decades have passed since Alan Turing asked “Can Machines Think?” . It’s hard to define what thinking means – and it continues to be hard today as it was in 1950. So Turing took a pragmatic approach and redefined the problem as “Can a computer behave like a human being?”.

It was absolutely a fine question to ask in 1950 because it was about the theoretical future and it provided a Northstar for AI researchers to guide their efforts . Now AI has reached a level where it is practical and the answer to the question has real consequences.

First – I don’t think machines think at all like we do . Most AI today is machine learning . What it does is do pattern detection at scale. And it takes a lot of information for the machine to “learn”. That in itself is an indication that machines are dumber than even little children today .

A toddler who has seen a picture or two of a dog on her story book can usually understand that the first real dog she sees is similar to a dog she saw in the book . And the odds of her mistaking a dog for a cat are minimal . That’s not true for machine learning at all – it needs a lot of labeled data to get to a comparable level if at all .

Second – we don’t just make decisions based on patterns alone . We use other information we know from the past and combine that with the newly detected pattern to make a decision . That’s not how AI works in mainstream today .

But Machine learning is amazingly powerful at a lot of things. It does not need to be like human thinking for it to be powerful and give us a lot of value . And like all of computing – it can also cause a great deal of harm. The time is ripe for us to get the debate on ethics of computing in general and AI in particular to actual actions with some urgency .

What is the purpose of AI ? Is it to replace humans at scale ? Or is it to augment humans ?

If it’s purpose is to augment humans – then isn’t it pure deception to make it pass Turing test ? Why should it solve problems in a way that makes an observer believe it’s a human ?

For example – if I ask a computer to add two five digit numbers , it can find me an answer in sub-second time . But to make me believe it’s a human that is answering – it needs to wait for few seconds or a minute to give me the answer . What is the real value delivered here ? And why should the virtual assistants have a human name and persona at all if the aim is to augment humans ?

Humans are imperfect and we are not always logical, nor consistent . That is our default mainstream behavior . Computers on the other hand have logical and consistent behavior as their default . It’s a waste of effort to make them behave like humans just to pass the Turing test . And obviously how ethical would such a system be that is fundamentally built to deceive ?

Computers can and should be used extensively to solve complex problems . They can do that without having to mimic humans just to trick us .

AI can do the world a lot of good – and that won’t happen if we don’t trust it . For example – there are well known ethical problems to solve for self driving cars . If we stop thinking about AI as human like – we probably will set a realistic bar for it to meet for us to be comfortable letting it drive our cars . AI enabled cars will also have many accidents – but we can have a logical discussion on “is it good enough that we can save a lot of lives lost through DIU and texting while driving by having more cars depend on AI ?”. If on a global aggregate – if AI can reduce the total loss of life every year , will we accept it ?

There will be many such difficult questions to answer now and in future . Can’t we give ourselves more room to solve them by taking away the need for AI to be human like ?

So should we free the world of AI to move past the Turing test so that they can focus on solving real problems without the burden of also deceiving us in the process ?